In fact, Groupthink is omnipresent in the the mainstream narrative and so-called news. The nearly universal belief that the Covid-lockdowns were necessary and effective and that the coronavirus can be stopped by brute-force economic and social regimentation is another case in point – underscored by a new analysis of the Swedish outcome.
The mainstream narrative, of course, is that Sweden’s no lockdown policy – the schools, restaurants, movies, gyms, malls etc. remained open – was a disastrous failure, thereby vindicating the universal quarantine approach of Dr. Fauci, Governor Cuomo and the rest of the Blue State Virus Patrol.
But that’s based on the irrelevant observation that Sweden’s overall WITH-Covid mortality rate of 56 per 100,000 is far higher than that of Norway, Finland and Denmark.
The truth is, Sweden’s mortality rate happened in the long-term care facilities, where 75% of the country’s 5,800 WITH-Covid deaths to date (August 18) have occurred, and which is neither here nor there when it comes to lockdowns of the non-elderly population.
Fortunately, a breakdown of Sweden’s WITH-covid deaths by detailed age brackets is readily available and it puts the kibosh on Dr. Fauci’s Lockdown Nation folly.
Number of WITH-Covid deaths/ Population/Rate per 100,000 by age cohort:
- 0-9 years: 1/1.22 million/ 0.08 per 100,000;
- 10-19 years: 0/1.19 million/ 0.0 per 100,000;
- 20-29: 10/1.31 million/ 0.77 per 100,000;
- 30-39 years: 16/1.37 million/ 1.16 per 100,000;
- 40-49 years: 45/1.31 million/ 3.42 per 100,000;
- 50-59 years: 162/1.27 million/ 12.8 per 100,000;
- 60-69 years: 398/1.14 million/ 34.8 per 100,000;
- 70-79 years: 1,250/.917 million/ 128.7 per 100,000;
- 80-90 years: 2,408/.425 million/ 567.0 per 100,000;
- 90 years plus: 1,512/.119 million/ 1,271.0 per 100,000.
So, yes, Sweden has a WITH-Covid mortality rate of 56 per 100,000 for the entire country. But 26% of those deaths occurred among the population 90 years and older, which accounts for just 1.1% of Sweden’s population.
Similarly, 67% of the deaths were among the population 80 years and older and 93% were among those aged 65 or more. By contrast, persons 65 and older account for just 19% of Sweden’s population, and the preponderant share of the latter, who have suffered serious illness or death from the Covid, were already in long-term care facilities and programs.
Needless to say, locking down the schools, gyms, restaurants and malls does nothing for the institutionalized population of the vulnerable elderly and co-morbid. Sheltering and treating the latter in place, rather than quarantining the younger, healthier populations, is the self-evident answer.
Indeed, the virtue of Sweden’s anti-lockdown strategy virtually screams out from the schedule above. Sweden did not close its schools, yet there has been just one WITH-Covid death among its 2.4 million school age children under 20 years.
Likewise, there have been just 71 deaths among its 4.0 million prime working and consuming age population (age 20-49). That’s a rounding error mortality rate of 1.77 per 100,000. Who in their right mind would want to shutdown the economy based on such infinitesimal risks?
Stated differently, the risk of death from Covid in Sweden has been 720X higher for the largely institutionalized 90 and over population compared to the prime working age group (20-49 years); and has also been 157X higher for the entire population 65 and over than for prime workers and the population that is the preponderant patron of the social congregation sectors of the economy.
Fortunately, Sweden also has readily available data on normal, year-in-and-year-out mortality, which rate is about 862 per 100,000 for the total population. But when you breakdown these normal mortality rates by age cohort and cause of death, the insanity of Lockdown Nation become all the more apparent.
Specifically, there are about 3,429 deaths per year in Sweden from auto crashes, falls, drownings, electrocutions, poisonings and other accidents, and these account for about 4% of Sweden’s 2019 death total from all causes of 89,000.
However, when you look at mortality rates per 100,000 from accidents alone, the starling result is that the existing risk of death from accidents is far higher than from the Covid for the entire 8.4 million population under 65 years of age, and for the young and middle-aged decidedly so.
Mortality rates per 100,000 for accidents versus Covid and ratio of accident/Covid risk:
- 0-14 years; 1.38 versus 0.06=25X;
- 15-44 years: 12.3 versus 1.2=10X;
- 45-64 years: 20.6 versus 15.4=1.34X;
- 65 years & older: 115 versus 257=0.45X.
In short, when the ordinary risk of death is 10-25X greater for accidents than from the Covid for the young and working population, you don’t shutdown the economy and the main avenues of social congregation.
Due to enlightened leadership by Sweden’s health professionals and leading epidemiologists, they got it right, and now both new cases and WITH-Covid deaths have virtually disappeared.
And that’s to say nothing of the fact, that Sweden’s Q2 GDP decline of just 8.6% was far better than the double digit declines in the US and most European countries, which imposed far more draconian lockdowns.
In America, by contrast, the tyranny of groupthink on the matter has become so great that college football and in-person college classes are being closed from coast-to-coast when the risk of serious illness or death among the college age population here, like in Sweden, is virtually nil.
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